During the Republican National Convention in July, Donald Trump selected Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate. Media outlets discussed Vance as a possibility leading up to the convention, so Trump’s decision was not a total surprise. However, the choice is a bit puzzling. It suggests that Trump may be overconfident in his chances at victory — so much so that political pragmatism has gone out the window.
A vice presidential nominee is usually selected to expand the party base or lock down a particular demographic. In the 2008 election, Barack Obama selected Joe Biden because of his long political career — a contrast to Obama’s four short years in the Senate — and at-the-time centrist credentials. In 2016, Donald Trump selected Mike Pence to lock down the religious Christian demographic, which at the time was very skeptical of Trump. Research has shown that the vice presidential pick adds, on average, two percentage points to their party’s margin in their home state.
Hillary Clinton’s selection of Tim Kaine in 2016 represents a pick who didn’t bring much to the table — Kaine even described himself as boring. Kaine was selected over Elizabeth Warren, Julian Castro and Cory Booker. Warren was a progressive with a strong tough-on-Wall Street record, Castro appealed to Hispanic voters, and Booker appealed to African-American voters. It seems like Clinton made the pick she did because she was sure the election was hers for the taking, and she wanted the safest pick. Given the prevalent belief by most pollsters and media pundits that Florida and North Carolina were lean-Clinton states and that the Rust Belt overwhelmingly favored Clinton, it’s not surprising why she thought she had the election in the bag. Oh how wrong she was.
John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin in 2008 also represents a pick who didn’t bring much to the table and arguably hurt McCain in the general election. Sarah Palin energized the Republican base and was known for being a “culture warrior.” However, Palin also drove moderate Republicans to Obama because of her extremely right-wing views and rhetoric: Sarah Palin denied global warming, was one of the most pro-NRA politicians in America at the time, supported teaching alternatives to evolution like creationism in the classroom, and embraced very polarizing language not too dissimilar to Trump’s rhetoric.
Trump’s 2024 pick mirrors Clinton’s eight years ago and McCain’s 16 years ago. Like Kaine, Vance is very similar to his running mate — perhaps too similar — and like Palin, Vance is popular within some circles of the Republican party but polls unfavorably among Americans more broadly. As of late August, Vance’s poll numbers are worse than Palin’s.
JD Vance has a very National Conservative, America First voting record in the US Senate: He has opposed climate change policies and aid for Ukraine, advocated for strict immigration control (both legal and illegal), and expressed support for high tariffs and protectionism. Perhaps Trump believed he was solidifying a future for his MAGA agenda by choosing Vance — a party made in his own image for years to come. Compared to the earlier rumored contenders for the VP pick — Florida Senator Marco Rubio and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgam — Vance is the most aligned with Trump on issues from isolationism to protectionism. However, this policy alignment is precisely why Vance doesn’t bring anyone new into the Trump tent. After his successful debate performance and near-death experience in Butler, Pennsylvania, Trump’s prospects in the polls looked promising. His running mate decision is not without repercussions.
Along with his right-wing populist voting record, JD Vance has also been criticized for past comments concerning women. In a 2021 interview with Tucker Carlson, Vance suggested that the US government was run by “a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they’ve made and so they want to make the rest of the country miserable, too.” Vance’s comments are driving unmarried women — a demographic the GOP already struggled with — away from the party and Trump’s 2024 campaign. Furthermore, in a 2020 podcast interview, Vance appeared to agree when the host, Eric Weinstein, suggested that raising grandchildren is “the whole purpose of the postmenopausal female” (though a Vance spokesperson has since clarified Vance’s disagreement with the statement). Statements like these seem to be moving married women – a demographic that the GOP typically wins, albeit by slim margins – away from the GOP and Trump’s 2024 campaign.
Exit polls from congressional elections in 2022 demonstrate the GOP’s weakness among unmarried women and strength among married men, married women, and unmarried men. Women in 2022 favored House Democrats by an 8-point margin. Before JD Vance’s selection, Joe Biden led Donald Trump among women voters by 8 points. According to August polling, Kamala Harris leads among women voters by 13 to 15 points. Though Democrats’ gains among women voters can be attributed partly to Harris replacing Biden atop the Democrat ticket, JD Vance has undeniably cost the GOP women voters.
If Trump wanted to significantly expand his voter base instead of shrinking it as he has done by selecting JD Vance, a running mate like Glenn Youngkin, Tulsi Gabbard, Marco Rubio, or Nikki Haley would’ve been a better choice. Youngkin appeals to “traditional” Republicans (think Romney 2012-Clinton 2016 voters). Gabbard appeals to disillusioned independents, Democrats, and voters who oppose the military-industrial complex. Rubio appeals to Hispanics and is a very popular politician; he previously won a majority of Latino voters in Florida and secured re-election to his Florida Senate seat by nearly a 17-point margin in 2022. Meanwhile, Haley appeals to women across the political spectrum — she consistently polled better than Joe Biden among women voters in a head-to-head matchup. Personally, I believe that Tulsi Gabbard would’ve been the best choice for a running mate, but any of these names would’ve been a better choice than Vance.
It’s too late for Trump to change his VP pick. August 7th was the deadline for both political parties to confirm their presidential and vice presidential candidates for the Ohio ballot. Trump is not known for admitting mistakes, but he should put his pride aside and recognize that he’s on track to botch what may have been the most winnable presidential campaign for a Republican since 2004.
Trump is wildly unpopular. Surviving a televised assassination attempt did not and will not drastically change his poll numbers. He has a likeability ceiling. This simply isn’t 1981, when the country was able to unify behind Reagan after an attempt on his life. Unlike in 2020, Biden and Harris have a lengthy record of legislation to speak of. Although Biden and Harris have faced substantial opposition from the uncommitted campaign in the Democratic primaries, most of those voters will probably still vote for Harris in the general election. Trump, meanwhile, had difficulty broadening his base in the Republican primaries. In some post-Super Tuesday elections, despite being the only candidate still in the race, Trump won only around 75% of the GOP vote. There’s still time for Trump to change course. Recently, Trump secured the endorsements of two popular ex-Democrats: Robert F. Kennedy and Tulsi Gabbard. Trump also named Kennedy and Gabbard honorary co-chairs of his presidential transition team, which suggests he is serious about incorporating support from disillusioned Democrats and Independents. Time will tell whether Trump can turn around the direction of his now-flailing campaign. The debate tonight, in particular, will be an important bellwether in the campaign.
(Image courtesy of Todd Heisler/NYT)
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