On Tuesday, October 1, CBS hosted the Vice Presidential debate at CBS headquarters in New York City. I watched the debate on TV at Princeton, and what I saw impressed me. On nearly every issue, Senator JD Vance (R-OH) demonstrated command of the facts and dominated Governor Tim Walz (D-MN).
On immigration, Vance correctly noted that the recent influx of migrants has increased housing demand and home prices. On foreign policy, Vance correctly noted that the world was safer and more peaceful during Donald Trump’s presidency. On trade, Vance correctly noted that President Biden kept President Trump’s tariffs on China in place and that Democrat-enabled offshoring has hurt American manufacturing. On abortion, Vance correctly noted that Governor Walz signed a bill that removed a requirement to save babies born alive after abortion. On the economy, Vance correctly noted that President Biden’s policies deserve most of the blame for inflation. On healthcare, Vance got Walz to defend Obamacare’s most unpopular provision – the individual mandate – which Republicans repealed during Trump’s first term. I could go on, but I think you get the point.
Walz had a decent, but noticeably worse, performance. He frequently touted bipartisanship, discussed how Minnesota has consistently been ranked the number one state for healthcare, rightfully criticized the conduct of President Trump on January 6, 2021, and agreed with Vance on how to improve childcare. Walz did relatively well given he told Kamala Harris during her VP search that he was a “bad debater.” Nevertheless, Walz did stumble on multiple key points during the debate. Of particular note was when the CBS moderators confronted Walz on his past statement that he was in Hong Kong during the Tiananmen Square protests (he wasn’t). After initially dodging the question and being pressed by the moderators, Walz conceded that he “misspoke” about his time in Hong Kong and China.
Millions of Americans, myself included, underestimated JD Vance. Like Vance, I’m not afraid to admit that I was wrong. However, Vance did not dominate Walz to the extent that President Trump dominated President Biden in June. Trump’s victory over Biden transformed the race and led to Trump surging in the polls until Harris replaced Biden as the presumptive Democratic nominee. At the time, nearly a third of Democratic voters conceded that Trump outperformed Biden. By contrast, although a clear majority of New York Times and Wall Street Journal columnists believe that Vance won the VP debate, a Politico poll showed that 72% of Democrats and 71% of Republicans believed their party’s VP nominee won. That Politico poll had a 50-50 split on who won the debate. Meanwhile, post-debate polls from CBS and CNN had Vance beating Walz, but only by extremely tight margins. Most polls and election forecasts maintain that this is a close election, with the eventual Electoral College margin likely to be somewhere between Trump’s 2016 victory and Biden’s 2020 victory. This election was a toss-up before the VP debate, and, despite Vance’s victory, it remains a toss-up post-VP debate.
(Picture credit: New York Times)
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